Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0600 UTC : 15.3S / 40.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.1S/39.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 18.4S/38.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/37.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.7S/37.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.8S/36.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0- AND CI=6.0- THIS MIDGET WITH A PIN POINT EYE LESS THAN 10 NM DIAMETER REACTS VERY QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATIONS OF INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTS WITH THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE, SOUTH OF MOCAMBIQUE ISLAND. LANDFALL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF MOCAMBIQUE AND ANGOCHE CITY THESE COMING HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK OVER WATER AT A WEAK STAGE BUT WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE TO RE-INTENSIFICATION. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.