Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 1200 UTC : 15.8S / 40.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 16.6S/39.1E OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0S/38.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.1S/37.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/37.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 21.6S/37.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/37.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM HAS MADE A LANDFALL AT 1015Z BETWEEN MOCAMBIQUE ISLAND AND ANGOCHE CITY. THE SUYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AND REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS NEXT HOURS. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY. BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK POLEWARDS TOWARDS A MID LATITUDES TROUGH. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.