Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 0000 UTC : 16.6S / 39.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 17.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 18.5S/39.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 19.8S/38.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 21.3S/39.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.5S/39.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 23.5S/39.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 CI=5.0 THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS NEXT HOURS. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY, BEEING AGAIN COMPLETLY OVER SEAS. BEYOND TAU 12, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK POLEWARDS TOWARDS A MID LATITUDES TROUGH, THEN SLOW DOWN. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDERGOING A INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYONG TAU 48. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.