Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 39.1E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 18.6S/38.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 19.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 21.4S/39.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 22.9S/39.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.1S/39.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 CI=4.0 STRONG WEAKENING HAS OCCURED AS THE THE SYSTEM HAS INTERACT WITH LAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS . ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY, BEEING AGAIN COMPLETLY OVER SEAS. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDERGOING A INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYONG TAU 48. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.