Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 38.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.1S/39.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 20.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.0S/40.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.6S/40.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.4S/40.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.1S/40.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 CI=3.5 STRONG WEAKENING HAS OCCURED AS THE THE SYSTEM HAS INTERACT WITH LAND. SINCE 1000Z, A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS TAKEN PLACE NEAR THE CENTER AND OVERALL CONFIGURATION IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER. SO, JOKWE IS CLASSIFIED AS A 50 KT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS . ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THEN BRIEFLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY (DURING 12-24 HOURS), BEEING AGAIN COMPLETLY OVER SEAS, BEFORE IT DETERIORATES WITH STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR AND LOW UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 TO 36 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE WILL BUILT BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN THE NWP SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 36. PRESENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ITS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.