Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1800 UTC : 18.6S / 39.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 20.0S/39.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 21.4S/39.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 22.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/40.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 24.7S/39.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.0S/39.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AN EYE STILL ERODED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART AT 1549Z (F13), WELL DEFINED AT 1702Z (F16). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 TO 36 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT NWP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 36. PRESENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND ITS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THAT REACTS QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT.