Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC : 21.2S / 39.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.7S/40.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0S/40.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.8S/39.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.5S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.5S/38.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/37.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. VERY SMALL AND RATHER WELL DEFINED IN VERY LOW LEVEL, THE EYE IS CONICAL AND LESS WELL DEFINED IN HIGH LEVEL. IT DOES EXISTS ON VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SINCE 0830Z. THE SYSTEM SHOWS NOW AN EYE PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY, CONFIRMING THE PATTERN SHOWED BEFORE ON THE MICROWAVE 1549Z (F13) AND 1702Z (F16). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION.