Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 40.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185 50 KT NE: 085 SE: 085 SO: 085 NO: 085 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.6S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/37.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.5S/37.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. CURRENTLY, TEH SYSTEM IS STRENGHENING WITH A VISIBLE EYE ON EIR PICTURES AND WELL DEFINED ON LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY. JOKWE IS NOW AGAIN NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON THIS TRACK, JOKWE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST OF EUROPA LATER TONIGHT. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND A MORE NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK.