Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 40.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.7S/39.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/38.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.4S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ CI=5.5 THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. JOKWE GAVE ITS BEST PRESENTATION BETWEEN 1630Z AND 2200Z (UNFORTUNATELY DURING NIGHTTIME BLACKOUT OF SATELLITE PICTURES !! BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT IT MAINTAINS DT AROUND 5.5/6.0, MAKING CI AT 5.5 DURING THAT TIME). SO, JOKWE IS UPGRADED TO MINIMAL INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH WINDS AT 90 KT. SINCE 2200Z, OVERALL CONFIGURATION HAS DETERIORATED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. JOKWE HAS PASSED AROUND 2000Z AT 35 KM TO THE NORTH EAST OF EUROPA WHERE A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 985.5 HPA HAS BEEN MEASURED. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONNED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND A MORE NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK. SURPRISINGLY, JOKWE SEEMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN SUCH MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORCASTED MOST PART OF THE FORCAST PERIOD AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND, GRADUAL WEAKENNING IS FORECAST BUT LESS AGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY.