Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 41.1E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.7S/39.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.7S/39.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ CI=5.0 SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.