Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 41.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.9S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 23.8S/39.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 23.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 CI=4.5+ SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.