Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 0000 UTC : 25.1S / 40.8E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.3S/40.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.4S/39.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.0S/39.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ CI=4.0+ THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, IT HAS CURVED WESWARDS, UNDEGOING THE STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS. BEYOND, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST IS IMPORTANT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO, IE DUE TO A REBUILDING RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND COULD RE-INTENSIFY. MANY NWMP FORECAST AN EVACUATION SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYOND THE 14.