Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 0600 UTC : 25.2S / 40.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.5S/40.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.5S/39.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 25.2S/39.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.7S/39.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.4S/39.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0S/39.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 CI=4.0 CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOURS, MAKING A STOP IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS. BEYOND, THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO, IE DUE TO A REBUILDING RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND COULD RE-INTENSIFY.