Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 1200 UTC : 25.8S / 40.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/4.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 26.0S/39.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 25.2S/38.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.7S/38.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.1S/38.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 23.6S/37.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ CI=4.0- CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER DURING THE BEGINING OF TH DAY, MAKING A STOP IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED HOWEVER TO KEEP ON WEAKENING AS SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT HOURS. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARDS SLOWLY. BEYOND, MORE NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A REBUILDING RIDGE IN ITS SOUTHWEST IN MIDDLE LEVELS.