Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/12 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7S / 40.1E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 180 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.7S/39.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 25.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.3S/39.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 23.9S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 23.4S/37.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0- CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER AT THE BEGINING OF DAY, MAKING A STOP IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, . MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH IS REBUILDING, SYSTEM IS THEREFORE QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1000Z. IT IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OVER ZIMBABWE AND SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS , SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK (BEYOND 36 HOURS ESPECIALLY) OF THIS SYSTEM.