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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4S / 40.0E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 140
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.8S/39.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.5S/39.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.2S/39.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 23.9S/39.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 23.4S/39.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+ AND CI=4.0+
AFTER REMAINING QUASI-STATIONNARY BETWEEN 1000Z AND 1800Z UNDERGOING THE REBUILDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, JOKWE HAS MOVED AGAIN NORTHWESTWARDS.
TRMM 1733Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED.
JOKWE HAS PROGRESSIVELY RE-ORGANISED AND METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE AGAIN SINCE 2330Z.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY GLOBABALLY NORTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OVER ZIMBABWE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, SYSTEM SHOULD THERFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1842Z ASCAT SWATH.