Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 0600 UTC : 25.0S / 40.4E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 390 SO: 250 NO: 140 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/40.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 23.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 23.2S/40.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 22.8S/40.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 22.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5- BETWEEN 00z AND 04z, THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TEMPORARILY MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HOWEVER LAST VIS AND IR IMAGERIES SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED EYE PATTERN. JOKWE IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS TRACK SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT WITH HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL EQUATORWARDS TRACK BUT WITH A RATHER BROAD SPECTRUM