Back to the RSMC advisories list
Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/12/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 1200 UTC :
25.3S / 40.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 650 SO: 260 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 045

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 25.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 24.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 24.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 24.6S/40.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 25.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/16 12 UTC: 24.3S/41.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 AND CI=4.0

SINCE 0500Z, THE EYE PATTERN HAS DISORGANISED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH AN ARC OF CIRRUS. F16 13/0520Z SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EXISTING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A BROAD FORECAST SPECTRUM.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF.
WITH THE SYSTEM BEING QUASI-STATIONAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE MOST FAVOURABLE CONDTIONS ARE UPPER NORTH - HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN.