Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/13 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3S / 40.4E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SO: 260 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 25.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.8S/40.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 24.5S/40.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 25.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 24.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/03/16 18 UTC: 24.2S/41.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 AND CI=4.0-. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH AN ARC OF CIRRUS. N15 13/1504Z SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EXISTING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A BROAD FORECAST SPECTRUM. THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF. WITH THE SYSTEM BEING QUASI-STATIONAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE MOST FAVOURABLE CONDTIONS ARE UPPER NORTH - HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN.