Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 40.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 25.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 25.0S/39.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 25.3S/39.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 25.4S/40.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/03/16 12 UTC: 25.6S/41.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/03/17 00 UTC: 25.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- AND CI=3.5. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR WITH AN ARC OF CIRRUS. N18 13/2235Z SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EXISTING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN EVACUATE IT EASTWARDS UP TO TAU48. WITH THE SYSTEM BEING QUASI-STATIONAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE MOST FAVOURABLE CONDTIONS ARE UPPER NORTH - HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE SLOWLY WEAKEN.