Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 40.2E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 25.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 25.2S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 25.5S/39.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 25.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2008/03/16 18 UTC: 25.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2008/03/17 06 UTC: 25.0S/46.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND A SHEAR PATTERN. F13 14/0347Z SHOWS A LLCC WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EXISTING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITJIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND THEN EVACUATE IT EASTWARDS, AS IT BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEPT THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY 16. JOKWE SHOULD KEEP ON THIS WEAKENING TREND. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.