Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/14 AT 1200 UTC : 25.1S / 40.1E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 300 SO: 215 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/15 00 UTC: 25.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 25.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 25.7S/40.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/03/16 12 UTC: 26.6S/43.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEM HAS KEPT A SHEAR PATTERN AND KEEP ON A WEAKENING TREND TODAY. BY INERTIAL, MAX WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE 12Z NWP RUN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (A WESTWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE) BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEPT THE SOUTHERN MOZABIQUE CHANNEL BY SUNDAY 16. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY THAT TIME.