Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 40.2E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/15 06 UTC: 24.9S/40.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/15 18 UTC: 25.2S/40.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/03/16 06 UTC: 25.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2008/03/16 18 UTC: 26.0S/45.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM IS FULLY SHEARED AND THE STILL WELL DEFINED LLC IS LARGELY EXPOSED IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (A WESTWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE) BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEEP THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY 16. DISSIPATION IS THEREFORE FORECAST BY THAT TIME.