Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 (EX-JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.7S / 40.0E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/15 12 UTC: 24.8S/39.8E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/16 00 UTC: 25.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2008/03/16 12 UTC: 25.5S/43.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0 AND CI=1.5+ THE STILL WELL DEFINED LLC IS FULLY EXPOSED WITHOUT ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ASCAT DATA AT 14/1940Z -EVEN NOT COMPLETE, DO NOT SHOW ANY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE STRONG GRADIENT SECTOR. NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 A 24 HOURS BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SWEEP THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON SUNDAY 16. DISSIPATION IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BE FULLY COMPLETED BY THAT TIME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARINIG ON THIS SYTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.