Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 88.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 12.6S/87.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 12.9S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 13.3S/84.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 13.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8S/80.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 16.2S/78.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN IMPORTANT EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MSLP IS ESTMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53581 BUOY DATA. THE LOCATION OF THE LLCCC IS ESTIMATED PARTLY THANKS TO MICRO-WAVE DATA F16 07/0128Z THIS SYETEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONNARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND THE 08, ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION.