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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 1200 UTC :
11.8S / 86.7E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 12.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 12.4S/85.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 13.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 15.4S/79.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 NEXT HOURS, ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

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