Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/13/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 88.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 040 SO: 340 NO: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 12.6S/88.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 12.9S/86.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 13.7S/84.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 14.7S/82.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 16.6S/79.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 18.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE EASTERN. STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT LINKED TO STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.