Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 87.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 040 SO: 340 NO: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 12.9S/86.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 13.8S/85.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.9S/83.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 16.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.5S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT LINKED TO STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THESE AREAS. LATS MICROWAVE AQUA 1955Z IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS NOW CLEARLY WEAKENED, ALLOWING A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.