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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0600 UTC :
12.6S / 86.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 13.4S/85.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 14.5S/84.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 15.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/79.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.4S/77.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

THE WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE SYSTEM THAT SHOWS EXPANSIVE CIRRUS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.