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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 86.0E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 14.0S/83.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 15.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 16.6S/79.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 18.8S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 21.3S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0S/77.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5

CLOUDY PATTERN HAS ORGANIZED BUT MICROWAVE DATA - TRMM 08/0823Z- SHOW THAT LLC IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED YET AND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY WINDSHEAR.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.