Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 85.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 36 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 14.5S/82.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 15.8S/80.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.9S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/78.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/78.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.6S/79.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- CLOUDY PATTERN HAS ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM STILL UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY WINDSHEAR, AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER THE ESATERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.