Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/13/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 82.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 16.1S/80.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 18.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 SYSTEM KEEPS ON STRENGHENING. ACCORDING LATEST MICROWAVE DATA (AMSU DE 0838Z), LLCC IS NOW IN PHASIS WITH THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IT HAS BEEN NAMED "KAMBA" BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 0300 UTC. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY WEAKEN UNDER THE STRONGER EFFECT OF SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.