Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/13/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 81.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 16.7S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 19.0S/77.9E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.3S/77.5E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 23.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 24.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- SYSTEM KEEPS ON STRENGTHENING. LAST MICROWAVE DATA F15 08/1346Z SHOW A FORMING EYE IN THE UPPER LEVEL, STILL SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS QHIFTED WITH THE llcc. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.