Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/13/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 79.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/76.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.3S/76.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 23.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 24.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- SYSTEM KEEPS ON STRENGTHENING. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (TRMM 1717Z AND AQUA 1944Z SHOW AN EYE PATTERN AND A RAPID INTENSIFICATION THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.