Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/13/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC : 18.2S / 78.5E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 22.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 26.6S/76.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 28.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 30.4S/73.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+. VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS, WITH A 25NM DIAMETER EYE. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO.