Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/13/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 185 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.6S/77.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 26.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 28.1S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 29.9S/75.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 32.5S/74.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0- KAMBA HAS MAINTAINED ITS WONDERFUL CONFIGURATION OF A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER A DETERIORATION ON THE CLOUD PATTERN SEEMS HAVE START AT 1700Z. FT IS BASED ON DT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. KAMBA SHOULD SOON ENCOUNTER COOLER SST THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WINDSHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START BEYOND TAU 24 AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO AND PRESENT GUIDANCE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF ALL NWP TRACKS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKS)