Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/13/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 78.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 96 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 290 SO: 290 NO: 185 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.3S/78.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.9S/78.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 28.5S/79.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 30.0S/77.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 31.5S/76.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 32.8S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ CI=6.0- KAMBA BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM COOLER SST AND A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL. SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEING ON A DEFINITIVELY WEAKENING TREND ... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START AROUND WEDNESDAY 12. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST SCENARIO AND PRESENT GUIDANCE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF ALL NWP TRACKS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKS)