Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/13/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (KAMBA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1800 UTC : 23.8S / 78.2E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 2.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 28.2S/77.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 30.1S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 31.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 32.9S/76.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 33.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ AND CI=4.5+ SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COOLER AND COOLER (LESS THAN 25 CELSIUS DEGREES FOR THE MOMENT, AND LOWER THAN 23 DEGREES CELSIUS SOUTH OF 30 SOUTH), UNDERGOING ALSO AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHICH DISORGANIZES AND PUSHSES THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTARDS. THE LLCC IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF CONVECTION, AND IS ELONGATED (SEE 37V CHANNELS OVER SSMI AT 1337Z AND 1453Z). STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH A NON-SYMETRIC STRUCTURE.