Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/14/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14 2.A POSITION 2008/03/20 AT 1200 UTC : 14.5S / 63.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/21 00 UTC: 14.7S/62.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/21 12 UTC: 14.9S/61.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/22 00 UTC: 15.3S/60.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 15.6S/59.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 15.9S/59.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.1S/58.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5- THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS CIRCULAR, WIDE AND WEAK. ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE LOW, WITH MANY BUOYS DATA BETWEEN 1000 HPA AND 1003 HPA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM (BUOYS 53974, 53948, 14911), WHERE THE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE 0204Z QUIKSCAT DATA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH AS BEEN INTENSIFYING AND LIGHTLY ORGANIZING DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS, IS STILL SCATTERED AND FLUCTUATING, WITH NON PERSISTANT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTING WITHIN A WIDE CURVED BAND MAINLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PROGRESSIVE INTESIFICATION (WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, FOR THE MOMENT NORTHEASTERLY AND MODERATE, WITH THE ESTABLISMENT OF A HIGH LEVEL RIDGE, GOOD CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVELS). AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.