Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/14/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14 2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 60.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/21 12 UTC: 15.3S/59.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/03/22 00 UTC: 15.7S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.3S/57.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.7S/56.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.8S/55.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ AQUA PASS AT 21:04Z SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS MORE WESTNORTHWARDS THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HAS LIGHTLY ORGANIZING DURING THE NIGHT, BUT IS STILL FLUCTUATING. SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP MODEL STILL DISPLAY SOME HIGH SPREAD FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. ECMWF, WHICH IS THE BEST SO FAR THIS SEASON, SHOWS SOME STRONG CHANGES FROM ONE RUN TO THE OTHER. THIS INCERTITUDE IS ALSO REFLECTED BY THE HIGH DISPERSION IN THE STRIKE PROBABILITIES OF THE ECMWF. PRESENT GUIDANCE IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE WITH ALL LATEST GLOBAL MODELS RUN AND HAS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT A SLOWER SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INTESIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM SOES NOT JUSTIFY THE EMISSION OF REGULAR WARNINGS.