Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 60.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/22 00 UTC: 16.0S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.1S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 15.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 15.6S/55.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ). SEVERAL CENTER MAY EXIST, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN ONE. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA, REFEERING TO ST-BRANDON SLP 999.6 HPA AT 0900UTC. WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0137Z QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK 20/25KT NEAR THE CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.