Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 2.A POSITION 2008/03/21 AT 1800 UTC : 15.6S / 59.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/22 06 UTC: 16.1S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/22 18 UTC: 16.2S/57.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/23 06 UTC: 16.2S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 16.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.1S/55.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION (SO WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE RATHER WEAK). THE MAIN CENTER IS NOT VERY "STABLE", THAT MEANS THAT A RE-LOCATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS BEGINNING OF LIFE. IT IS ESTIMATED FOR THE MOMENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ). WINDS , ACCORDING TO 1425Z QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK 15/20 KT NEAR THE CENTER, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 30KT TO 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE (GRADIENT EFFECT, AND WITHIN THE ACTIVE CURVED BAND, AS IN SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND WHERE 37 KT 10 MIN AVERAGE WINDS, WITH GUSTS AT 50KT, HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT 1500 Z) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE RECUIRVATURE SOUTHWARDS, TOWARD A WIDE AND DEEP TROUGH AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST.