Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/14/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 0000 UTC : 16.0S / 59.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/22 12 UTC: 16.6S/58.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.8S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.8S/56.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.7S/55.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.5S/54.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.5S/54.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION (SO WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE RATHER WEAK). THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ). WINDS , ACCORDING TO 1717Z METOP/ASCAT DATA, ARE STILL WEAK NEAR THE CENTER. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA, REFEERRING TO ST-BRANDON SLP 995,2 HPA AT 2300UTC. GALE FORCE WINDS, JUSTIFYING THE NAMING, EXIST ONLY IN THE SOUTH, RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER (DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES) AND UNDER DEEP CONVECTION (SQUALLS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WIDE AND DEEP TROUGH SHOULD ATTRACKT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ADTER TAU72.