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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/14/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 58.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 100 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/23 00 UTC: 16.3S/57.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 16.5S/56.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.3S/55.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 16.6S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0. CI=2.5+
THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WEAKENING WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ).

WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0242 QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION AND DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER AN TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WIDE AND DEEP TROUGH SHOULD ATTRACKT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ADTER TAU72.