Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/23 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 16.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.0S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.0S/54.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.3S/54.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 17.2S/54.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 CI=2.5- QUICKSCAT DATA OF 1358Z REVEAL A WEAK SYSTEM, WELL BELOW MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGH, WITH 30 KT WINDS ONLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SO CURRENT INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED FURTHER NORTH AND SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRAKING WESTWARDS AT 05 KNOTS. LOLA IS STILL SUFFERING OF A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME NICE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REFFERED TO THE CIRRUS EXPENSION. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY TOMORROW. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT, A WIDE AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH THAT WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND MAKE THE SYSTEM TURN SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS.