Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 57.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/23 12 UTC: 15.8S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 15.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 15.7S/55.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 15.7S/55.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 16.0S/55.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 17.1S/56.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 CI=2.5- MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT (SSMI PASS AT 1331Z, 1528Z, AMSU PASS AT 1817Z) SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON (18Z POSITION SHOULD HAVE BEEN FURTHER EAST). WITHOUT RELIABLE DATA SINCE THAT TIME, PRESENT FIX HAS BEEN BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND SUPPOSING THAT THE PRESENT MOVMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONNARY. RELOCALISATION MAY NEED TO OCCUR LATER WITH FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY. LOLA IS STILL SUFFERING OF A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME NICE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REFFERED TO THE CIRRUS EXPENSION. DEEEP CONVECTION ACTIVITY WAS AT ABOUT 50/60 NM FROM THE CENTER SINCE 15Z, SO T NUMBER HAS RAISED AND CI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TODAY UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESTART TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT, A WIDE AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH THAT WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND MAKE THE SYSTEM TURN SOUTHEASTWARDS.