Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/23 AT 0600 UTC : 16.2S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 200 SO: 220 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1150 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/23 18 UTC: 16.1S/56.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 15.9S/55.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 15.7S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 16.8S/55.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 CI=2.5- QUIKSCAT 23/0225Z SHOWS A STRONGLY ASYMETRICAL SYSTEM, WITH WINDS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE (20 KT), REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 23/0043Z SHOW A SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF THE 16TH SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY SHEARED. LOLA UNDERGOES A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT SHOWS A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REFFERED TO THE CIRRUS EXPENSION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TODAY UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND CURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS.