Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6S / 57.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1050 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/24 00 UTC: 16.4S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.0S/55.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.3S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 16.8S/55.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 17.9S/55.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 19.5S/56.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 CI=2.5- QUIKSCAT 23/0225Z SHOWS A STRONGLY ASYMETRICAL SYSTEM, WITH WINDS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE (20 KT), REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 23/0043Z SHOW A SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF THE 16TH SOUTH, NORTHEASTERLY SHEARED. ON THE LAST ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY, THE LLCC IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.