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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/14/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 56.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 220 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/24 06 UTC: 16.6S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/24 18 UTC: 16.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/25 06 UTC: 16.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/25 18 UTC: 17.6S/54.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/26 06 UTC: 18.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/26 18 UTC: 20.6S/57.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY ASYMETRICAL, WITH WINDS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE (20 KT), REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 23/1513Z SHOW A NORTHERLY SHEARED SYSTEM. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO ORGANYZE INTO A SMALL BI SOUTH TO THE CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.