Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/14/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-LOLA) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 55.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/24 12 UTC: 16.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/25 00 UTC: 16.4S/54.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/25 12 UTC: 16.9S/53.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/26 00 UTC: 17.6S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/26 12 UTC: 18.8S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/27 00 UTC: 20.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM IS STRONGLY ASYMETRICAL, WITH WINDS RATHER WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE (20 KT), REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. MICROWAVE DATA SSMI 23/1816Z SHOW A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEARED SYSTEM. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO ORGANYZE HARDLY INTO A SMALL BI SOUTH TO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS UNDER A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TEMPORARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BROAD AND DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD GIVE A POLEWARDS COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AND TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.